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Red368
4362176.2
2832146.3
9996131.5
Blue253
1684185.9
703149.4
2619131.2
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions311324200250350400450368253

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
176.20.1
176.4176.3
Auto16.9
Teleop144.7
End14.2
blue by 9.7
1684
#15
185.91.2
191.6190.4
Auto24.7
Teleop136.5
End23.2
Second
2832
#16
146.33.2
151.6148.5
Auto19.1
Teleop107.1
End17.0
blue by 3.0
703
#10
149.40.1
149.6149.5
Auto19.5
Teleop118.2
End11.5
Third
131.52.6
120.4123.0
Auto16.7
Teleop102.1
End14.6
red by 0.3
131.21.1
129.0130.0
Auto18.4
Teleop100.4
End15.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
66%Auto Quest oddsEarned91%Auto Quest oddsEarned
Face the Boss
14%Face the Boss oddsMissed7%Face the Boss oddsMissed