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Red310
4787120.7
1329130.2
4314122.8
Blue426
4356128.2
4241124.9
3695161.3
18%Model gave it82%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions259345100200300400500310426

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1329
#28
130.21.5
122.3123.8
Auto17.6
Teleop98.2
End15.8
blue by 31.2
161.36.4
124.6131.1
Auto17.0
Teleop118.8
End25.8
Second
4314
#20
122.83.5
100.2103.6
Auto16.2
Teleop94.7
End13.6
blue by 5.4
4356
#17
128.20.1
123.3123.3
Auto19.2
Teleop97.5
End11.1
Third
4787
#22
120.73.5
107.6111.1
Auto15.1
Teleop92.3
End14.4
blue by 4.2
4241
#30
124.94.4
120.7125.1
Auto14.7
Teleop98.0
End11.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
40%Auto Quest oddsMissed39%Auto Quest oddsMissed
Face the Boss
3%Face the Boss oddsMissed3%Face the Boss oddsMissed