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Red219
135163.1
1781128.7
9999126.0
Blue464
9986110.6
4485149.1
234202.9
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions305339100200400500600219464

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
135
#17
163.11.2
165.6164.4
Auto17.6
Teleop119.5
End22.0
blue by 39.8
234
#4
202.90.1
200.9200.8
Auto28.4
Teleop140.7
End33.7
Second
1781
#16
128.70.8
128.1128.9
Auto16.1
Teleop97.7
End13.5
blue by 20.4
149.10.1
148.5148.6
Auto19.5
Teleop114.4
End15.5
Third
126.00.6
125.4126.0
Auto17.2
Teleop98.8
End5.2
red by 15.4
9986
#14
110.60.2
110.4110.6
Auto15.6
Teleop87.9
End9.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
14%Auto Quest oddsEarned82%Auto Quest oddsMissed
Face the Boss
8%Face the Boss oddsMissed23%Face the Boss oddsMissed