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Red278
4103158.7
1501167.2
3487148.8
Blue386
1747194.9
3176147.7
5403163.4
23%Model gave it77%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions310412100200500600700800278386

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1501
#22
167.20.3
167.8167.5
Auto21.5
Teleop122.3
End25.0
blue by 27.7
194.91.0
192.9193.9
Auto24.9
Teleop148.8
End20.3
Second
4103
#14
158.70.7
157.9158.5
Auto21.3
Teleop118.2
End18.2
blue by 4.7
5403
#16
163.40.9
165.0164.1
Auto24.0
Teleop114.0
End23.5
Third
3487
#25
148.80.5
149.2148.8
Auto19.7
Teleop109.1
End19.3
red by 1.1
147.70.4
146.9147.3
Auto22.3
Teleop106.1
End19.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
91%Auto Quest oddsMissed95%Auto Quest oddsEarned
Face the Boss
21%Face the Boss oddsMissed12%Face the Boss oddsMissed