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Red425
234185.2
868164.0
3947124.0
Blue154
5010141.9
5403157.5
1720146.7
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions375334200250300400450500550425154

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
234
#2
185.20.0
184.2184.3
Auto25.7
Teleop134.5
End27.1
red by 27.7
5403
#12
157.50.5
157.0157.5
Auto21.7
Teleop115.0
End20.6
Second
868
#1
164.01.0
158.3159.2
Auto21.9
Teleop117.9
End28.5
red by 17.3
1720
#16
146.70.0
146.7146.7
Auto20.1
Teleop103.0
End25.3
Third
3947
#28
124.00.1
122.8122.9
Auto19.8
Teleop96.4
End9.1
blue by 18.0
5010
#14
141.90.6
141.4141.9
Auto18.9
Teleop112.1
End10.9