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Red398
5687182.7
5813183.8
58152.9
Blue272
4564192.6
9996112.9
6172146.0
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3992480100200300500600700800398272

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
183.80.9
179.0180.0
Auto21.6
Teleop140.5
End22.3
blue by 8.8
192.60.3
189.4189.2
Auto24.4
Teleop144.1
End29.4
Second
182.72.6
193.3190.7
Auto21.4
Teleop142.1
End19.6
red by 36.7
6172
#16
146.01.8
150.3148.4
Auto17.5
Teleop108.9
End21.9
Third
58
#11
152.91.3
156.2154.9
Auto18.8
Teleop117.7
End15.7
red by 40.0
9996
#18
112.97.3
88.996.2
Auto14.5
Teleop85.0
End9.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
75%Auto Quest oddsEarned60%Auto Quest oddsEarned
Face the Boss
17%Face the Boss oddsMissed3%Face the Boss oddsEarned