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Red261
3538204.6
2771196.0
5205136.3
Blue375
3098188.7
4003204.8
2586145.7
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions360350100200300400500600261375

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3538
#11
204.60.0
204.7204.7
Auto23.8
Teleop156.8
End26.0
blue by 0.2
204.80.1
205.0204.9
Auto22.8
Teleop159.6
End22.1
Second
196.00.2
195.7195.9
Auto24.1
Teleop140.7
End32.0
red by 7.3
188.70.3
189.3189.0
Auto20.6
Teleop139.9
End27.0
Third
5205
#35
136.30.1
136.1136.2
Auto20.6
Teleop106.0
End11.5
blue by 9.4
2586
#32
145.70.3
146.2145.9
Auto16.2
Teleop111.5
End18.1