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Semifinal 2-22018 Michigan State Championship
Red391
3357229.7
3452194.4
6193167.7
Blue251
3098187.3
4003204.2
2586144.3
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4063150100200500600391251

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3357
Unranked
229.70.3
230.3→230.0
Auto22.1
Teleop175.5
End30.1
red by 25.4
4003
Unranked
204.20.1
204.7→204.6
Auto22.5
Teleop159.5
End22.9
Second
3452
Unranked
194.40.2
194.6→194.5
Auto20.7
Teleop142.8
End28.4
red by 7.1
3098
Unranked
187.30.2
188.5→188.2
Auto20.0
Teleop139.5
End27.8
Third
6193
Unranked
167.70.4
168.5→168.1
Auto19.8
Teleop123.7
End23.2
red by 23.4
2586
Unranked
144.30.2
145.4→145.2
Auto15.8
Teleop110.6
End18.9