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Semifinal 2-32018 Michigan State Championship
Red287
3357229.7
3452194.4
6193167.7
Blue315
3098187.3
4003204.2
2586144.3
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4083100100200500600700287315

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3357
Unranked
229.70.3
230.0→229.7
Auto22.1
Teleop175.5
End30.1
red by 25.4
4003
Unranked
204.20.1
204.6→204.5
Auto22.5
Teleop159.5
End22.9
Second
3452
Unranked
194.40.1
194.5→194.4
Auto20.7
Teleop142.8
End28.4
red by 7.1
3098
Unranked
187.30.3
188.2→187.9
Auto20.0
Teleop139.5
End27.8
Third
6193
Unranked
167.70.4
168.1→167.7
Auto19.8
Teleop123.7
End23.2
red by 23.4
2586
Unranked
144.30.3
145.2→145.0
Auto15.8
Teleop110.6
End18.9