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Red166
1677111.5
4967135.5
6138127.8
Blue387
6094121.2
4855146.9
6090175.8
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3062960100200400500600166387

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4967
#22
135.54.7
129.5134.2
Auto23.0
Teleop102.0
End9.6
blue by 40.3
175.811.3
105.5116.8
Auto21.9
Teleop127.6
End28.4
Second
6138
#16
127.812.6
88.4101.0
Auto18.3
Teleop96.1
End14.0
blue by 19.2
4855
#23
146.914.7
93.2107.9
Auto16.5
Teleop105.1
End28.5
Third
1677
#27
111.511.3
88.599.8
Auto16.1
Teleop89.8
End4.3
blue by 9.7
6094
#15
121.210.9
85.596.4
Auto13.5
Teleop93.5
End13.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
34%Auto Quest oddsEarned31%Auto Quest oddsMissed
Face the Boss
4%Face the Boss oddsMissed4%Face the Boss oddsMissed