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Red158
5234155.7
5561148.5
5166118.0
Blue420
7211135.4
5114150.3
5612140.7
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions318325150200250300350400450500158420

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
155.70.2
155.4155.6
Auto21.9
Teleop108.9
End25.8
red by 5.4
150.30.7
147.7148.3
Auto17.0
Teleop109.5
End26.4
Second
148.50.0
148.8148.7
Auto15.3
Teleop115.2
End19.8
red by 7.9
5612
#20
140.70.3
139.5139.7
Auto14.3
Teleop114.6
End10.2
Third
5166
#33
118.00.2
118.6118.4
Auto15.5
Teleop91.0
End11.7
blue by 17.3
7211
#23
135.40.5
133.5134.0
Auto14.8
Teleop106.7
End13.9