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Red493
5460196.6
1684185.8
818137.2
Blue232
5517160.9
1188132.3
4961157.5
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions410288100200500600700800493232

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
196.60.0
196.6196.6
Auto20.5
Teleop146.7
End25.7
red by 35.6
5517
#21
160.90.0
160.9160.9
Auto18.2
Teleop118.3
End23.4
Second
185.80.0
185.8185.8
Auto25.3
Teleop133.3
End31.6
red by 28.3
4961
#14
157.50.0
157.5157.5
Auto23.7
Teleop119.4
End16.4
Third
818
#24
137.20.0
137.2137.2
Auto16.5
Teleop104.7
End16.5
red by 5.0
1188
#12
132.30.0
132.3132.3
Auto17.2
Teleop102.1
End16.4