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Red120
576295.9
481675.3
4290158.5
Blue354
4829113.5
5190204.6
5679117.2
18%Model gave it82%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2053780100300500600700120354

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4290
#24
158.50.8
169.1169.9
Auto20.3
Teleop121.3
End11.9
blue by 46.1
204.61.2
213.1211.8
Auto23.8
Teleop157.3
End24.3
Second
5762
#30
95.90.8
98.699.4
Auto14.8
Teleop78.6
End0.2
blue by 21.4
5679
#14
117.20.9
122.4121.5
Auto17.5
Teleop88.3
End8.7
Third
4816
#28
75.31.3
84.182.9
Auto13.1
Teleop59.3
End3.7
blue by 38.2
4829
#18
113.50.7
113.8114.5
Auto14.5
Teleop89.6
End9.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
29%Auto Quest oddsMissed58%Auto Quest oddsMissed
Face the Boss
2%Face the Boss oddsMissed3%Face the Boss oddsMissed