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Red167
2016138.3
514129.4
1665121.7
Blue177
5484131.9
6300116.2
3003142.8
44%Model gave it56%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3033310100200400500600700167177

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2016
#22
138.31.9
130.1132.0
Auto19.5
Teleop100.4
End19.1
blue by 4.5
142.83.5
133.2136.7
Auto18.4
Teleop108.6
End17.2
Second
514
#28
129.45.9
113.4119.3
Auto17.5
Teleop95.0
End16.8
blue by 2.5
5484
#25
131.91.3
124.7125.9
Auto18.4
Teleop102.1
End9.3
Third
1665
#15
121.75.6
112.4118.0
Auto18.2
Teleop88.6
End18.7
red by 5.5
6300
#33
116.22.1
125.5127.6
Auto14.7
Teleop91.1
End9.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
51%Auto Quest oddsEarned53%Auto Quest oddsMissed
Face the Boss
5%Face the Boss oddsMissed3%Face the Boss oddsMissed