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Red405
3314181.4
4145181.6
5030159.0
Blue229
291180.8
379195.4
6490132.2
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions367385100200300500600700405229

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
181.60.1
181.3181.4
Auto22.8
Teleop134.8
End23.8
blue by 13.8
379
#2
195.40.4
194.7195.1
Auto25.4
Teleop137.9
End32.6
Second
181.40.1
181.1181.2
Auto25.0
Teleop122.5
End35.0
red by 0.6
291
#12
180.80.0
180.9180.9
Auto24.1
Teleop135.1
End18.3
Third
5030
#13
159.00.5
158.0158.5
Auto17.4
Teleop122.3
End21.2
red by 26.8
6490
#29
132.20.4
131.8132.2
Auto19.2
Teleop95.9
End17.6