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Red346
1676165.9
3667152.4
597167.3
Blue444
3550143.7
5567177.4
314157.3
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions349346250300400450500346444

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
597
#19
167.31.8
160.2161.9
Auto23.2
Teleop123.6
End21.6
blue by 10.0
5567
#14
177.41.1
171.9173.0
Auto22.0
Teleop126.3
End27.9
Second
1676
#32
165.90.5
161.6162.0
Auto17.6
Teleop121.2
End30.1
red by 8.7
314
#9
157.30.7
151.7151.1
Auto18.7
Teleop120.6
End16.0
Third
3667
#11
152.40.5
147.3146.7
Auto18.7
Teleop121.3
End11.8
red by 8.7
3550
#56
143.70.9
140.1141.0
Auto17.6
Teleop109.0
End16.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
86%Auto Quest oddsEarned75%Auto Quest oddsEarned
Face the Boss
12%Face the Boss oddsMissed14%Face the Boss oddsMissed