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Red486
1296173.7
4610122.5
624231.0
Blue324
6111119.3
3310226.7
3355135.9
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions358315100200400500600486324

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
624
#2
231.00.5
227.6228.1
Auto25.9
Teleop162.8
End42.7
red by 4.3
226.71.0
218.9219.9
Auto24.7
Teleop173.6
End26.7
Second
173.72.1
166.4168.6
Auto20.6
Teleop136.1
End15.7
red by 37.8
135.91.3
128.3129.6
Auto17.9
Teleop104.8
End16.3
Third
4610
#10
122.50.8
122.2121.4
Auto17.5
Teleop91.9
End10.2
red by 3.2
6111
#24
119.31.0
122.4121.4
Auto16.9
Teleop93.1
End11.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
86%Auto Quest oddsEarned81%Auto Quest oddsEarned
Face the Boss
45%Face the Boss oddsMissed24%Face the Boss oddsEarned