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Red43
199120.7
112411.5
17518.4
Blue67
585618.8
169913.6
355527.1
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5152304060704367

Skew-normal from the six robots' rating spreads, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1991
#20
20.70.8
17.817.0
Auto4.7
Teleop9.5
End6.5
blue by 6.4
3555
#12
27.11.2
19.520.7
Auto5.2
Teleop15.8
End6.1
Second
175
#32
18.40.8
19.318.5
Auto5.5
Teleop8.9
End4.0
blue by 0.4
5856
#16
18.81.2
17.318.4
Auto4.7
Teleop11.4
End2.7
Third
1124
#38
11.50.8
11.510.7
Auto3.8
Teleop5.3
End2.4
blue by 2.0
1699
#21
13.61.2
12.814.0
Auto4.4
Teleop6.6
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Rocket
1%Rocket oddsMissed2%Rocket oddsMissed
HAB Docking
50%HAB Docking oddsMissed52%HAB Docking oddsMissed