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Red49
684520.5
644516.8
508514.9
Blue49
66969.2
634316.4
405718.8
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions423401020305060704949

Skew-normal from the six robots' rating spreads, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6845
#22
20.5
Auto5.2
Teleop10.7
End4.6
red by 1.7
18.8
Auto2.9
Teleop8.3
End7.5
Second
6445
#18
16.8
Auto3.3
Teleop10.7
End2.8
red by 0.4
6343
#14
16.4
Auto3.5
Teleop10.4
End2.5
Third
5085
#13
14.9
Auto2.9
Teleop8.1
End3.9
red by 5.7
6696
#16
9.2
Auto3.3
Teleop3.1
End2.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Rocket
2%Rocket oddsMissed2%Rocket oddsMissed
HAB Docking
31%HAB Docking oddsMissed30%HAB Docking oddsEarned