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Red127
519947.8
585140.8
248533.7
Blue130
388240.2
704240.3
385939.3
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13114750100200250300127130

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.80.2
46.947.1
Auto9.6
Teleop10.5
End27.6
red by 7.5
40.30.5
43.843.2
Auto7.9
Teleop4.6
End27.8
Second
40.80.2
39.940.1
Auto8.0
Teleop7.0
End25.7
red by 0.5
3882
#13
40.20.5
43.743.2
Auto18.3
Teleop11.6
End10.3
Third
2485
#38
33.70.2
32.833.0
Auto10.3
Teleop5.5
End17.8
blue by 5.6
3859
#19
39.30.5
42.742.2
Auto12.8
Teleop12.3
End14.1