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Red126
223144.0
563531.7
165731.3
Blue151
561432.4
703941.9
610441.0
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11613150100150200250126151

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2231
#11
44.00.3
43.744.0
Auto12.4
Teleop15.7
End15.9
red by 2.1
41.90.9
42.042.8
Auto14.8
Teleop12.9
End14.3
Second
31.70.3
31.331.7
Auto10.4
Teleop5.8
End15.5
blue by 9.3
6104
#13
41.00.8
41.041.8
Auto16.4
Teleop12.0
End12.6
Third
1657
#22
31.30.3
30.931.3
Auto9.4
Teleop6.1
End15.7
blue by 1.1
5614
#15
32.40.9
32.433.3
Auto11.1
Teleop5.9
End15.4