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Red136
357251.9
191868.1
524727.1
Blue126
368847.0
508647.4
612223.0
92%Model gave it8%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions18512250100150200250300136126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
68.10.5
71.871.3
Auto16.5
Teleop27.8
End23.8
red by 20.8
47.40.2
47.247.4
Auto18.6
Teleop12.9
End15.9
Second
51.90.5
55.655.1
Auto18.5
Teleop14.9
End18.4
red by 4.9
3688
#25
47.00.2
46.847.0
Auto12.7
Teleop11.6
End22.8
Third
5247
#21
27.10.5
30.830.3
Auto6.3
Teleop6.4
End14.5
red by 4.1
6122
#24
23.00.2
22.823.0
Auto11.4
Teleop11.8
End-0.2