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Red149
205268.5
249158.6
418243.1
Blue153
125946.3
250254.1
753040.2
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions19615050100250300149153

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
68.50.6
68.367.7
Auto19.3
Teleop20.9
End28.2
red by 14.3
54.10.1
53.853.7
Auto14.7
Teleop17.7
End21.7
Second
58.60.6
58.457.8
Auto17.5
Teleop16.2
End24.8
red by 12.2
1259
#36
46.30.1
46.045.9
Auto20.7
Teleop16.0
End9.6
Third
4182
#16
43.10.6
43.042.3
Auto7.5
Teleop11.5
End24.1
red by 2.9
7530
#35
40.20.1
39.939.7
Auto9.3
Teleop11.7
End19.2