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Red180
205268.5
249158.6
418243.1
Blue155
125946.3
250254.1
753040.2
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions19314950100250300180155

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
68.50.3
67.768.0
Auto19.3
Teleop20.9
End28.2
red by 14.3
54.10.5
53.754.1
Auto14.7
Teleop17.7
End21.7
Second
58.60.3
57.858.1
Auto17.5
Teleop16.2
End24.8
red by 12.2
1259
#36
46.30.5
45.946.3
Auto20.7
Teleop16.0
End9.6
Third
4182
#16
43.10.3
42.342.6
Auto7.5
Teleop11.5
End24.1
red by 2.9
7530
#35
40.20.5
39.740.2
Auto9.3
Teleop11.7
End19.2