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Red150
265539.5
153351.5
366113.8
Blue117
319628.2
453451.8
617717.2
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1121096080100120140160180150117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.51.1
49.951.0
Auto14.1
Teleop16.9
End20.4
blue by 0.3
51.80.4
52.653.0
Auto17.2
Teleop16.0
End18.6
Second
2655
#13
39.51.1
37.939.0
Auto15.9
Teleop18.0
End5.5
red by 11.3
28.20.3
28.829.2
Auto10.5
Teleop8.1
End9.6
Third
3661
#26
13.81.1
12.213.3
Auto4.2
Teleop3.6
End5.9
blue by 3.5
6177
#20
17.20.3
16.917.2
Auto7.1
Teleop3.0
End7.1