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Red49
43534.7
744337.2
77156.7
Blue68
672925.6
746319.1
264019.3
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions99690501504968

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
37.20.9
39.438.5
Auto15.5
Teleop3.4
End18.3
red by 11.6
6729
#12
25.60.1
26.126.2
Auto7.4
Teleop6.3
End12.0
Second
435
#4
34.70.8
36.735.9
Auto4.7
Teleop7.7
End22.3
red by 15.4
2640
#18
19.30.1
19.819.9
Auto7.4
Teleop5.6
End6.2
Third
7715
#25
6.70.8
8.77.9
Auto5.7
Teleop0.4
End0.6
blue by 12.4
19.10.1
19.619.7
Auto5.3
Teleop2.8
End11.0