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Red187
288358.1
308249.9
284734.7
Blue129
565336.1
375063.3
785837.7
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions167152100200250187129

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.10.3
60.060.3
Auto12.5
Teleop18.5
End27.2
blue by 5.2
63.30.3
63.663.3
Auto17.1
Teleop28.3
End18.0
Second
49.90.3
51.752.0
Auto15.3
Teleop9.6
End25.0
red by 12.1
7858
#16
37.70.3
38.037.7
Auto13.9
Teleop12.2
End11.6
Third
2847
#52
34.70.3
36.536.8
Auto12.3
Teleop14.6
End7.8
blue by 1.5
5653
#24
36.10.3
36.436.1
Auto11.2
Teleop12.7
End12.2