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Red183
13360.6
490540.2
615332.2
Blue102
669131.4
804636.7
13133.1
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15010650200250183102

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
133
#5
60.60.9
59.460.3
Auto16.4
Teleop17.4
End26.8
red by 24.0
8046
#11
36.70.0
36.336.3
Auto13.1
Teleop4.7
End18.9
Second
40.20.9
39.139.9
Auto9.7
Teleop7.1
End23.5
red by 7.1
131
#17
33.10.0
32.832.8
Auto11.5
Teleop17.4
End4.2
Third
6153
#32
32.21.0
30.931.8
Auto7.9
Teleop10.4
End13.9
red by 0.7
6691
#22
31.40.0
31.031.1
Auto6.7
Teleop10.4
End14.3