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Red205
13360.6
490540.2
615332.2
Blue138
66345.4
693334.5
151739.1
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15411650100200250205138

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
133
#5
60.61.2
60.761.9
Auto16.4
Teleop17.4
End26.8
red by 15.2
663
#12
45.40.7
41.742.4
Auto10.9
Teleop4.7
End29.8
Second
40.21.2
40.441.6
Auto9.7
Teleop7.1
End23.5
red by 1.2
1517
#16
39.10.6
35.836.4
Auto12.2
Teleop7.4
End19.5
Third
6153
#32
32.21.3
32.333.6
Auto7.9
Teleop10.4
End13.9
blue by 2.3
34.50.7
30.931.5
Auto11.0
Teleop8.6
End14.9