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Red101
13360.6
490540.2
615332.2
Blue135
66345.4
693334.5
151739.1
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15811750100200250101135

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
133
#5
60.60.8
61.961.1
Auto16.4
Teleop17.4
End26.8
red by 15.2
663
#12
45.40.6
42.443.0
Auto10.9
Teleop4.7
End29.8
Second
40.20.8
41.640.8
Auto9.7
Teleop7.1
End23.5
red by 1.2
1517
#16
39.10.5
36.436.9
Auto12.2
Teleop7.4
End19.5
Third
6153
#32
32.20.9
33.632.7
Auto7.9
Teleop10.4
End13.9
blue by 2.3
34.50.6
31.532.1
Auto11.0
Teleop8.6
End14.9