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Red156
452536.6
496742.6
766429.1
Blue164
78131.9
401533.2
137421.4
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12386050100150200250156164

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.60.7
41.942.6
Auto11.8
Teleop6.0
End24.9
red by 9.5
33.21.5
31.633.1
Auto13.2
Teleop6.9
End13.1
Second
4525
#10
36.60.8
35.836.6
Auto13.4
Teleop9.0
End14.2
red by 4.7
781
#17
31.91.5
30.331.8
Auto10.4
Teleop5.7
End15.7
Third
7664
#27
29.10.8
28.329.1
Auto8.3
Teleop3.1
End17.8
red by 7.7
1374
#24
21.41.5
19.821.3
Auto10.3
Teleop-0.4
End11.5