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Red102
415246.5
633635.8
686424.4
Blue167
136037.5
260947.3
654438.1
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions117135050100150200250300102167

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
46.50.1
46.646.5
Auto17.7
Teleop7.8
End21.0
blue by 0.8
47.30.7
45.946.7
Auto10.0
Teleop13.3
End24.0
Second
35.80.1
35.935.8
Auto11.0
Teleop2.8
End22.0
blue by 2.3
6544
#14
38.10.8
36.637.4
Auto8.3
Teleop7.0
End22.9
Third
6864
#20
24.40.1
24.524.4
Auto10.1
Teleop5.9
End8.4
blue by 13.0
1360
#15
37.50.7
36.136.8
Auto11.4
Teleop12.9
End13.2