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Red137
497649.4
260951.2
760326.2
Blue114
447641.6
494650.7
614019.1
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions138122050100200250300137114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.20.3
49.750.0
Auto12.8
Teleop12.8
End25.6
red by 0.5
50.70.1
50.650.7
Auto12.6
Teleop18.6
End19.5
Second
4976
#13
49.40.4
47.748.0
Auto14.7
Teleop15.9
End18.8
red by 7.8
41.60.1
41.541.6
Auto13.7
Teleop18.8
End9.0
Third
7603
#32
26.20.4
24.424.8
Auto6.0
Teleop11.5
End8.6
red by 7.1
6140
#26
19.10.1
19.019.1
Auto4.7
Teleop5.2
End9.2