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Red175
755849.1
128543.6
238625.5
Blue123
434323.7
747528.4
687822.6
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12876050100150200175123

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
49.11.3
45.847.2
Auto13.3
Teleop15.5
End20.3
red by 20.7
28.40.1
28.328.4
Auto7.7
Teleop3.1
End17.6
Second
43.61.3
40.341.7
Auto14.4
Teleop18.9
End10.3
red by 19.9
23.70.1
23.623.7
Auto8.6
Teleop10.6
End4.5
Third
2386
#23
25.51.3
22.323.6
Auto9.4
Teleop6.4
End9.6
red by 2.9
6878
#24
22.60.1
22.522.6
Auto6.9
Teleop11.4
End4.3