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Red181
111446.6
368360.6
240523.4
Blue100
124139.0
583445.4
219818.2
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions136112050100150200250181100

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.60.6
56.857.4
Auto12.5
Teleop28.0
End20.1
red by 15.2
45.40.5
45.645.2
Auto15.2
Teleop10.9
End19.3
Second
1114
#10
46.60.6
42.943.5
Auto22.7
Teleop12.9
End11.0
red by 7.7
39.00.5
39.238.7
Auto15.7
Teleop12.5
End10.8
Third
2405
#25
23.40.6
19.620.2
Auto7.9
Teleop4.9
End10.6
red by 5.2
2198
#20
18.20.5
18.418.0
Auto8.5
Teleop4.3
End5.4