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Red145
451954.3
502453.8
503219.5
Blue163
755849.1
128543.6
238625.5
56%Model gave it44%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions135124050100150200250300145163

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
54.30.5
51.652.1
Auto18.6
Teleop13.8
End21.9
red by 5.2
49.11.1
47.248.3
Auto13.3
Teleop15.5
End20.3
Second
53.80.5
51.051.5
Auto16.6
Teleop10.8
End26.4
red by 10.2
43.61.1
41.742.8
Auto14.4
Teleop18.9
End10.3
Third
5032
#22
19.50.5
16.717.2
Auto6.6
Teleop4.5
End8.4
blue by 6.0
2386
#23
25.51.1
23.624.7
Auto9.4
Teleop6.4
End9.6