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Red179
142558.0
371144.4
36025.3
Blue171
448849.4
367471.2
646521.9
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12815950100200250179171

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.01.3
55.056.3
Auto22.4
Teleop17.1
End18.5
blue by 13.2
71.20.4
69.870.2
Auto17.9
Teleop27.7
End25.5
Second
44.41.3
41.442.7
Auto13.0
Teleop4.3
End27.1
blue by 5.0
49.40.4
48.148.5
Auto14.2
Teleop19.0
End16.3
Third
360
#24
25.31.3
22.323.6
Auto12.8
Teleop9.4
End3.1
red by 3.4
6465
#36
21.90.4
20.621.0
Auto9.0
Teleop3.9
End9.0