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Red170
164047.4
180755.4
249518.7
Blue137
140333.3
10346.0
181127.4
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions122115050100150200250170137

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.41.4
51.252.5
Auto12.4
Teleop19.9
End23.2
red by 9.5
103
#9
46.00.7
45.145.9
Auto16.9
Teleop11.2
End17.9
Second
1640
#10
47.41.4
43.244.6
Auto16.7
Teleop16.0
End14.7
red by 14.1
1403
#31
33.30.8
32.433.2
Auto11.6
Teleop11.3
End10.4
Third
2495
#20
18.71.4
14.415.8
Auto3.1
Teleop7.2
End8.3
blue by 8.8
1811
#29
27.40.7
26.627.3
Auto7.7
Teleop5.4
End14.3