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Red149
164047.4
180755.4
249518.7
Blue129
140333.3
10346.0
181127.4
56%Model gave it44%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions127117050100150200250300149129

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.40.5
52.553.0
Auto12.4
Teleop19.9
End23.2
red by 9.5
103
#9
46.00.1
45.946.0
Auto16.9
Teleop11.2
End17.9
Second
1640
#10
47.40.5
44.645.0
Auto16.7
Teleop16.0
End14.7
red by 14.1
1403
#31
33.30.1
33.233.3
Auto11.6
Teleop11.3
End10.4
Third
2495
#20
18.70.5
15.816.3
Auto3.1
Teleop7.2
End8.3
blue by 8.8
1811
#29
27.40.1
27.327.4
Auto7.7
Teleop5.4
End14.3