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Red127
399647.8
552850.8
495513.5
Blue126
223444.6
311739.4
355019.6
64%Model gave it36%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions129109050150200250127126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.80.0
51.251.2
Auto14.8
Teleop7.5
End28.5
red by 6.2
2234
#14
44.60.4
43.443.8
Auto16.2
Teleop6.8
End21.6
Second
47.80.0
48.248.1
Auto13.8
Teleop15.2
End18.8
red by 8.3
39.40.4
38.238.6
Auto11.4
Teleop11.9
End16.1
Third
4955
#25
13.50.0
13.813.8
Auto4.2
Teleop1.1
End8.2
blue by 6.2
3550
#28
19.60.4
18.418.8
Auto9.7
Teleop5.6
End4.4