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Red173
161057.3
210644.8
112326.4
Blue108
299843.9
40141.8
633437.0
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12613950100200250173108

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
57.31.2
52.753.9
Auto15.3
Teleop26.4
End15.6
red by 13.3
2998
#16
43.90.3
44.143.7
Auto11.2
Teleop13.2
End19.5
Second
44.81.2
40.341.5
Auto16.1
Teleop12.3
End16.5
red by 3.1
401
#11
41.80.3
41.941.5
Auto10.3
Teleop3.2
End28.3
Third
1123
#32
26.41.2
21.823.1
Auto9.3
Teleop6.1
End11.0
blue by 10.6
6334
#14
37.00.3
37.136.8
Auto21.3
Teleop8.1
End7.6