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Red153
580445.3
108653.3
152226.9
Blue116
189551.0
159948.5
428627.7
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14114650100200250300153116

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.30.3
53.753.9
Auto12.8
Teleop26.1
End14.5
red by 2.3
51.01.0
52.051.0
Auto13.2
Teleop10.1
End27.7
Second
45.30.3
45.746.0
Auto11.0
Teleop12.9
End21.3
blue by 3.2
48.51.0
49.548.5
Auto14.0
Teleop15.4
End19.1
Third
1522
#19
26.90.3
27.327.5
Auto5.9
Teleop0.1
End20.9
blue by 0.7
4286
#27
27.71.0
28.627.7
Auto11.1
Teleop-0.4
End17.0