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Red148
491154.7
291068.0
417323.1
Blue136
293036.8
297652.4
491827.7
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions172120050100150200250300148136

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
68.00.0
68.768.7
Auto22.0
Teleop27.4
End18.7
red by 15.6
52.40.5
51.552.0
Auto20.4
Teleop13.4
End18.6
Second
54.70.0
55.355.3
Auto13.1
Teleop24.5
End17.1
red by 17.8
2930
#16
36.80.5
35.936.3
Auto12.4
Teleop9.5
End14.9
Third
4173
#26
23.10.0
23.823.8
Auto8.1
Teleop5.3
End9.7
blue by 4.6
4918
#14
27.70.5
26.727.2
Auto12.3
Teleop5.0
End10.3