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Red213
209665.1
458657.3
383529.5
Blue174
307538.3
822341.8
565438.4
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1741220100200300400500213174

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.11.4
64.465.8
Auto17.6
Teleop18.6
End29.0
red by 23.3
8223
#11
41.81.0
40.941.8
Auto11.8
Teleop7.6
End22.5
Second
57.31.4
56.658.0
Auto13.1
Teleop21.4
End22.8
red by 18.9
5654
#23
38.41.0
37.438.4
Auto10.3
Teleop8.9
End19.2
Third
3835
#18
29.51.4
28.830.2
Auto8.9
Teleop10.1
End10.6
blue by 8.8
3075
#14
38.31.0
37.338.3
Auto12.7
Teleop14.0
End11.7