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Red78
386327.4
258422.9
513715.5
Blue79
153833.1
366916.6
392518.8
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6354304050607080907879

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3863
#19
27.41.1
28.029.0
Auto6.4
Teleop12.1
End9.0
blue by 5.7
33.12.4
25.527.9
Auto11.2
Teleop17.1
End4.9
Second
2584
#14
22.91.1
16.517.5
Auto6.1
Teleop7.1
End9.7
red by 4.1
18.82.0
12.214.2
Auto4.6
Teleop4.8
End9.4
Third
5137
#21
15.51.4
13.715.1
Auto5.0
Teleop7.0
End3.6
blue by 1.1
3669
#12
16.62.0
14.416.3
Auto3.9
Teleop1.7
End11.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
12%Cargo oddsMissed43%Cargo oddsEarned
Hangar
50%Hangar oddsEarned38%Hangar oddsEarned