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Red40
263728.6
321830.2
873811.6
Blue99
572738.9
802019.2
69520.8
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions716302040801001204099

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3218
#36
30.21.7
28.927.2
Auto6.6
Teleop11.7
End11.9
blue by 8.6
5727
#22
38.92.0
29.131.1
Auto6.2
Teleop23.7
End9.0
Second
2637
#43
28.61.7
28.827.1
Auto9.2
Teleop12.5
End7.0
red by 7.9
695
#38
20.82.0
15.918.0
Auto6.4
Teleop8.4
End5.9
Third
8738
#71
11.61.7
7.76.0
Auto3.0
Teleop4.5
End4.2
blue by 7.5
8020
#27
19.22.0
15.317.4
Auto6.5
Teleop4.7
End8.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
54%Cargo oddsMissed68%Cargo oddsEarned
Hangar
84%Hangar oddsMissed72%Hangar oddsEarned