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Red88
634615.7
740746.1
816713.7
Blue64
169921.9
206726.7
5715.2
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions64634050607080908864

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
46.11.6
41.443.0
Auto15.4
Teleop20.0
End10.7
red by 19.3
2067
#10
26.70.0
27.027.1
Auto10.2
Teleop8.4
End8.2
Second
6346
#15
15.71.6
8.810.4
Auto5.6
Teleop7.2
End2.9
blue by 6.2
1699
#16
21.90.0
21.321.3
Auto6.2
Teleop11.5
End4.2
Third
8167
#21
13.71.6
9.310.9
Auto3.8
Teleop5.9
End4.0
red by 8.5
571
#39
5.20.0
11.511.5
Auto3.6
Teleop1.7
End-0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
48%Cargo oddsEarned29%Cargo oddsMissed
Hangar
25%Hangar oddsEarned60%Hangar oddsEarned