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Red47
150121.8
102420.4
4479.4
Blue41
745412.9
393617.4
172012.4
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions574420801004741

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
21.80.1
21.921.8
Auto5.0
Teleop10.3
End6.4
red by 4.4
3936
#11
17.40.0
17.417.3
Auto3.4
Teleop0.9
End13.0
Second
20.40.1
20.520.4
Auto5.6
Teleop6.8
End8.1
red by 7.5
7454
#12
12.90.0
12.912.9
Auto3.3
Teleop2.6
End7.0
Third
447
#22
9.40.1
9.59.4
Auto4.9
Teleop1.9
End2.6
blue by 3.1
1720
#18
12.40.0
12.412.4
Auto4.6
Teleop4.8
End3.1