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Red109
6753.3
501022.5
102428.9
Blue121
236340.5
246840.7
153342.2
38%Model gave it62%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions115134050100150200250109121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
67
#36
53.30.9
54.353.5
Auto12.3
Teleop30.1
End10.9
red by 11.0
1533
#21
42.20.4
41.240.8
Auto10.2
Teleop24.6
End7.4
Second
1024
#41
28.90.9
30.830.0
Auto8.0
Teleop11.9
End8.9
blue by 11.8
2468
#12
40.70.4
40.540.0
Auto7.1
Teleop21.9
End11.7
Third
5010
#43
22.50.9
24.924.1
Auto6.8
Teleop8.7
End7.0
blue by 18.0
2363
#25
40.50.4
41.741.3
Auto12.4
Teleop23.8
End4.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
95%Cargo oddsMissed99%Cargo oddsEarned
Hangar
95%Hangar oddsEarned72%Hangar oddsEarned