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Red107
153342.2
62444.8
173033.7
Blue147
353848.8
173244.7
82927.2
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions134118050100150200250107147

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
624
#44
44.81.1
46.145.0
Auto14.2
Teleop21.1
End9.4
blue by 4.1
3538
#10
48.82.3
45.047.2
Auto10.1
Teleop27.9
End10.8
Second
1533
#21
42.21.1
41.240.1
Auto10.2
Teleop24.6
End7.4
blue by 2.5
1732
#17
44.72.3
41.643.9
Auto11.8
Teleop24.9
End8.0
Third
1730
#22
33.71.1
36.335.2
Auto7.3
Teleop17.4
End9.0
red by 6.4
829
#38
27.22.3
26.528.8
Auto8.0
Teleop11.3
End8.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
100%Cargo oddsEarned99%Cargo oddsEarned
Hangar
93%Hangar oddsEarned94%Hangar oddsEarned